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Spoil Sports, or an Oppportunity for a Dignified Exit

This morning, I woke up to the news that the LTTE had declared an unilateral ceasefire during the SAARC conference. Of course, war is not a sport - but their declaration must be causing a slight dilemma for the Sri Lankan Military. Here’s an extract from the LTTE’s press release that was said to have originated from LTTE’s Political Office in the Vanni during the early hours  of this morning:

As a sign of this goodwill, our movement is glad to inform that it will observe a unilateral ceasefire that is devoid of military actions during the period of the SAARC conference from 26th July to 4th August and give our cooperation for the success of the conference. At the same time if the occupying Sinhala forces, disrespecting our goodwill gesture of our people and our nation, carry out any offensives, our movement will be forced to take defensive actions.

A few minutes after reading the news and checking out related websites, I heard loud banging on our front gate. It was just after 6am, and the the cops were knocking.

They were very polite. Four policemen, and two army personnel - one male, one female. They wanted to check the premises. And so they did. It was all very civilised. The two of us who occupy the house are both Sinhalese, so, I thought it may be a wink-and-nod exercise, but I was surprised when they started looking under the bed. Of course, it’s impossible to be thorough without going through every inch of the place - but never the less, they scanned rooms, and looked in to boxes and containers, and under stacks of newspapers. But as they moved from the second to the third room, and then to the kitchen, their thoroughness decreased. Perhaps they had evaluated that we were not a threat to the State.

Anyway, back to the LTTE’s unilateral ceasefire.

At the time of publishing this post, there has not been a formal response from the Government.

Will the Government ignore the LTTE’s unilateral ceasefire and continue  the fighting - which would most certainly provide ’soft’ ammunition to the LTTE; or do they also agree to cease fighting for ten days, and then continue  the war after the men from SAARC go home? Or will both sides wink-and-nod, and continue killing each other more quietly?

The membership of SAARC has no real reason to be too friendly towards the LTTE - but perhaps last night’s coming together of Robert Mugabe and Morgan Tsvangirai to resolve their differences and “chart a new way” (presumably towards a more peaceful and prosperous Zimbabwe,) could tempt the membership in to becoming more active in resolving Sri Lanka’s problems.

The person who was the hero in yesterday’s Zimbabwe deal wasn’t the proud  President or the persistent Opposition Leader. The hero was the mediator - the South African President Thabo Mbeki.

It was only Aljazeera that was beaming out live yesterday’s full press conference where Mugabe slammed the European Union and the United States for its threatening stance towards Zimbabwe. He congratulated South African President Mbeki, a number of times, for his efforts in attempting to resolve the political crisis in Zimbabwe. Mugabe’s speech stressed the need for Africa to solve Africa’s problems using Africa’s way, and for the rest of the world to butt out. Mugabe’s speech would have touched any leader who feels bullied by the West.

In Sri Lanka’s case - Prabhakaran needs the West, but Rajapakse doesn’t. In fact, for Sri Lanka’s President, “the West” is annoying, hypocritical and full of double standards. On top of that, he would suspect that certain sections of “the West” remains sympathetic to the LTTE.

And under the current climate, there’s no way the Government would consider a power-sharing deal with the LTTE. If they did, there’d be a very public military coup.

So, a couple of questions to conclude with:

Will anyone from SAARC put up their hands to help Sri Lanka “chart a new way”? Who would want to make Prabhakaran feel safe, powerful and loved, while gently guiding him to his retirement home? Or will the men from SAARC  give the wink-and-nod to President Rajapakse to continue squeezing the the LTTE until they are no more…

note: the views expressed in the above piece do not necessarily represent the views of the author. the above piece aims to generate dialogue and discussion in the spirit of blog culture.


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Sri Lankan said,

July 22, 2008 @ 1:25 pm

This news item appeared in CNN as ” Tamil Tigers declare unilateral ceasefire for summit”. I thought the last word should be replaced by “Survival” as the tigers are on the run and are not in a position to use such propaganda. This will give some ammunition to the West, European Community and Tiger sympathetic NGO’s to call for a ceasefire from the military. A ceasefire at this moment will give Tigers the breathing space to re-arm and re-group as always. Now that the military has the upper hand they should continue the war till tiger leadership agree to lay down the arms and come for peace talks to end the conflict and misery to everybody. Those who die in the war are all Sri lankans whether they are Sinhalese, Tamils or Muslims. Whatever the Tigers declare I a sure they will definitely create chaos during this period as they are not well recieved by any of the SARC country leadership unlike the WEST

yoda said,

July 22, 2008 @ 3:18 pm

Strange it is to have a piece that claims to represent not the views of its author. Insulted the blog culture, he has. For engaging with genuine views, I am. For entertaining those who say what they don’t think, i am not. Serious, these discussions are. Games, they are not.

sam said,

July 22, 2008 @ 4:12 pm

Yoda, you promised me so much, with your wisdom and words. I believed you once, but now you have failed me. Many good people put their faith in your stories about the Force - only to die in vain.

One minute, I must be able to take credit for everything, and the next minute I must be able to deny all. It is the nature of our system. Perhaps this island is too ugly for your Force. The dark side still prevails. I hope you understand.

- s.

Dammika said,

July 22, 2008 @ 5:10 pm

This war I categorise as a WAR OF BUSINESS for both parties. On both parties young soldiers & the future of Sri Lanka is getting killed. On the Government side soldiers are fighting for a salary and the LTTE side set of brain washed young one’s fighting for their own kind. Basically who get killed and suffer are the poor and the middle class community on both sides whether it is Tamils or Sinhalese or Muslims.

Every day when you log-on to internet or read news papers or listen to news in radio or TV Gov. forces have attacked this base and that base also killed so many LTTE carders…..but LTTE still has the strength to counter attack our soldiers….is a QUESTION????

I strongly believe our own Sri Lankans not educated enough to think deeply to judge the truth. Even the educated mass too sometimes act in a shame manner. Government is fooling the mass saying that they almost defeated the LTTE…and masses are believing. Some say in public discussions never mine we can suffer without food for sometime if government can defeat LTTE. But when????????…but when go home these people have hunger war at home which very difficult fight & defeat.

Have a strong feeling the county is dragging towards similar to ZIMBABWE. The biggest question is when will the poor innocent mass cover this and when will we see a right & beautiful future is a question.

nperies said,

July 22, 2008 @ 6:58 pm

What the GOSL needs to do is make a counter-offer. Something like….,

GOSL will agree to the ceasefire for the mentioned dates, if and only if LTTE would release all teenagers in their outfit to go home to their relatives for those same days..

That would put the ball in the LTTE court…

Nandagupta said,

July 22, 2008 @ 8:14 pm

If any one is willing to believe the LTTE and their ceasefire agreements, they are living in a dream world. LTTE lost its credibility with the people in Sri Lanka and the rest of the world. They are looking for a break to regroup and rearm. I don’t think the LTTE can fool the people anymore. Only way the LTTE can stop the Sri Lankan forces forward march is to agree on negotiation talks after laying down the arms. President of Sri Lanka made this proposal to the LTTE after studying the history of LTTE statements, agreements and actions. People believe the President is sincere in his efforts to bring a conclusion to the misery created by the LTTE in Sri Lanka. And that is the reason why they support him even with all the economic hardships.

sam said,

July 22, 2008 @ 9:30 pm

It is highly possible the LTTE is waiting for a counter-offer, like it was waiting for a response to the ISGA. Perhaps the Government should lessen its demand of full disarmament, and request the LTTE decommission their gun-boats, or their big guns.

But also, perhaps its unwise to give the LTTE so much credit. Maybe, as some commentors have suggested, they are only after some breathing space.

My article however was searching for an appropriate mediator/hero who may be able to guide the LTTE out of the stage, while encouraging the Government to respect some of the basic democratic principles it signed up to… The LTTE’s insistence on wanting Norway to be the only mediator is interesting.

Janesh said,

July 22, 2008 @ 10:52 pm

It seems to me that the LTTE offered this ceasefire because it is currently on the back foot militarily. It’s tacticians probably thought “hey, let’s look really diplomatic and offer a ceasefire during the SAARC summit.” I think the main intention is to get into India’s good books as the Indians were worried about their prime minister being a possible LTTE target. If there is a ceasefire all that the LTTE would do is use it to strengthen itself so personally I do not see the point in reciprocating at this point. If they do attack Colombo during the summit it will only reflect poorly on them.

Tamilan said,

July 23, 2008 @ 8:38 am

SUNTZU said

“The good fighters of old first put themselves beyond the possibility of defeat, and then waited for an opportunity of defeating the enemy. If he is secure at all points, be prepared for him. If he is in superior strength, evade him.”

Whatever you people say TAMIL EELAM for sure!

Ekcol said,

July 23, 2008 @ 12:22 pm

In March 1996 Harvard Univ conflict resolution team went to Colombo and got permission to go to Mullaitivu (As Kilinochchi was under the control of GOSL) and talk about a dialogue. GL Peiris agreed. The day before they were to to to Mullaitivu through Mankulam GL told the Harvard team that the forces and the general public would see white persons going to Tiger territory and will assume Peace Talks are underway. He did not want to give that impression to the Sinhala people. In April 1997, LTTE offered Chandrika to negotiate a solution with Norway as the mediator if she does not start the offensive she was contemplating. LTTE knew about the impending offensive. They told her that the offensive will not succeed and it will cause much death, destruction and displacement of Tamil civilians. And that the offensive will not achieve its objective of capturing the A9. But Chandrika, Ratwatte, Kadirgamar and the Generals thought LTTE is weak and they want to negotiate to buy time.

The Jeya Sikuru started at the auspicious time early morning. After two years of death destruction and displacement the GOSL forces had Captured territories up to Mankulam and Oddisuddan and all areas South of the two villages. Only 18 miles of A9 was left to join up with the GOSL forces in Kilinochchi. End of November the LTTE started their offensive and drove back the GOSL forces all the way back to Thandikulam in NINE days.
It is ironic that Iqbal Abbas would say on his Column in the Sunday Times of July 20 that Chandrika ordered the withdrawl of the GOSL forces from the Vanni. Those who were in the Vanni and those who have visited soon after would bear witness to the mountains of artillery shells, fridges full of Carlsberg Beer, torn uniforms caught in barbwires, boots strewn in the jungles and roads of a fleeing army. If no one will believe, ask Karuna. He was one of a few who lead the onslaught. Is Iqbal Abbas trying to get back in the good books of the administration? If the armed forces were withdrawn why would Chandrika order commissions to inquire? Early 2000, the LTTE went through Poonery, Kilinochchi, Elephant Pass and Chavakachcheri within two months.

The point of this narrative is to instill in the reader that the LTTE does not declare unilateral ceasefire or ask for a ceasefire when they are weak. Remember LTTE declared a unilateral ceasefire for a month at the end of 2000, then extended it to another month and then another. But Chandrika and her advisers had not learned their lesson. Not only the GOSL offensive from Muhamalai was beaten back but who could forget the attack on the Kattunayake airbase in the same compound and runways as the BIA. Geneva Protocol prohibits military bases in civilian airports but this anomaly continues and the IC keeps mum. Not a single civilian was hurt in that offensive.

It is in the best interest of peace and a negotiated settlement for the gosl to not only accept the ceasefire but extend it. For those who are thinking that the LTTE should lay down their arms before talks, they are living in Gaga land. Of course if the gosl forces go back to their barracks in the South I am sure LTTE can be convinced to go back to theirs. We all know such a proposition is not within the realm of possibilities. I hope better judgement will prevail and both sides cease all hostilities, negotiate a ceasefire and begin talks.

Velu said,

July 24, 2008 @ 1:08 am

Tigers dont offer cease fire unless for their benefit; to re-arm or consolidate winnings and we all are aware of the current situation.
As for respecting the international community goes assasination of Rajiv Gandhi, drug smugling, extortion, credit card fraud and murder of non-tiger Tamils in foreign countries for Nazi Tamil-only eelam is another myth !

Velu said,

July 24, 2008 @ 2:35 am

Lets not forget Kadirigama…………………………………among many others

(PS; This north-south concept is another myth, after all does Anuradhapura fall anywhere near this so called ’south’??? ……..here you can clearly see theproblem….fake beliefs and ideologies=bogus!!!

This northern town of Sri Lanka is the historical heartland of the golden age of this country that witnessed excellence in literature, art, construction and agro-engineering. We under Rajendra-Chola must take part the blame for its destruction.)

There may be a small region of ‘north’, currently even the smaller ‘wanni’, however a mono-ethnic dictatorship based on a baby army is to succeed that is surely the begining of the end for the known world !!

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