groundviews » A ‘Hold-Fire’ for One Month - Response to LTTE’s ceasefire during SAARC

A ‘Hold-Fire’ for One Month - Response to LTTE’s ceasefire during SAARC

August 1, 2008 at 7:30 am · Categories: Colombo, English, Jaffna, Peace and Conflict | by Somapala Gunadheera

It would be short-sighted to dismiss out of hand, the current offer of the LTTE of a ‘cease-fire’.

Apart from anything else, it will create the impression that we were hell bent on the war regardless of its pathetic consequences to human life and rights - an impression that would further erode our standing internationally. On the other hand accepting the offer would infuriate the proponents of ‘fight to a finish’, who appear to be the mainstay of a government in crisis. This dilemma calls for an ingenious response that neither rejects nor accepts the offer.

To ‘cease’ is to ‘stop’ but to ‘hold’ is to ‘pause’. Pausing the on-going battles for a brief period of a month cannot harm the campaign tangibly. On the other hand it would give a much needed respite to the battle-fatigued soldiers. At the same time, the interval would not grant an opportunity to the LTTE to reinforce and replenish as in the case of a ‘cease-fire’. In the meantime aid-agencies and the public service in the Vanni can stretch themselves out to grant relief to those reported to be displaced there.

The pre-condition of downing arms before the cease-fire is logically sound and popularly appealing but practically Utopian. It is a process that calls for complex negotiation and preconditions. What if the talks fail after the surrender of arms? In such a contingency surrendering arms would effectively mean surrendering the talks as well.

The interruption of a hold-fire is bound to be disappointing to those who believe that the forces are on the verge of victory, in opposition to the counter-predictions of international experts on ethnic strife. Even if the experts are proved wrong in our particular case, how many more thousands of our siblings are we going to sacrifice on the Altar of Ares before we see an end to this conflict?

In any case the contribution of the armed forces appears to have served its declared purpose of compelling a negotiated settlement. Exterminating the LTTE would not spell the end of the problem at all. There is no avoiding the ethnic conflict until genuine steps are taken to grant the legitimate aspirations of the Tamils.

The one month hold-fire should be subject to strict conditions applicable to both sides under the watchful eyes of the world community. The minimum conditions aught to be;

1. Negotiations at the highest level, (not between post-masters!) on a framework for settlement, including core content, negotiators, venue, facilitators, if any, arms disposal and time-frames.

2. If there is no consensus between parties at the end of the month, the hold-fire will be unilaterally terminated, unless both parties agree to an extension.

The two weeks’ respite offered by the LTTE is clearly inadequate to sort out all these preliminaries. If their offer is genuinely a positive step and not a gimmick to impress the international community, they should agree to use the interval to a fruitful purpose by giving enough time to lay the foundation for a final settlement. Hence the suggestion for a Government response proposing a workable arrangement.

The negotiations will necessitate an informal third party who can act as a facilitator. The person selected should command respect on both sides on account of his views and experience. The name of Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein vintage, who was recently here, comes to my mind in this connection.

The facilitator should be given unimpeded access to leaders on both sides without intervention of go-betweens. His final report will serve as a permanent credential to the sincerity and commitment to peace, on each side. Only let us not go to sleep after agreeing to the ‘hold-fire’ as we did in the case of the ‘cease-fire’.

Let us give Peace a sporting chance!

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Ekcol said,

August 1, 2008 @ 11:00 am

Such a suggestion had been communicated to all parties concerned. LTTE came up with their SAARC unilateral declarations. The gosl think of it as buying time and a weakness. Anyone who has been following LTTE’s declarations in the past will know they do such declarations only when they are strong. So don’t be surprised if the LTTE extends the unilateral ceasefire for another month.

Your suggestion is a piecemeal approach with achievable goals. I think LTTE will take it up, but I doubt gosl which continues its air and artillery offensive even now will agree unless the IC put an embargo on military and economic assistance. If there is two third majority for your approach, in or out of parliament, a solution can be achieved within an year.

David Blacker said,

August 1, 2008 @ 11:26 am

I think you’re quite wrong about this ceasefire, Somapala.

“Apart from anything else, it will create the impression that we were hell bent on the war regardless of its pathetic consequences to human life and rights”

Not at all. Perhaps it would create this impression among those who have no idea where Sri Lanka is or what sort of a war is being fought. No one else has really criticized the GoSL’s stand. War itself has pathetic consequences to human life and rights, and that needs to be understood when one engages in war, and it is obvious that the engager accepts that.

“To ‘cease’ is to ‘stop’ but to ‘hold’ is to ‘pause’. Pausing the on-going battles for a brief period of a month cannot harm the campaign tangibly.”

I’m afraid it will. Even a pause of a few days will cause harm and cost the Army added casualties. During the closing phases of WW2, when the USSR was overrunning the Eastern Front, German field commanders pleaded with Hitler to allow them to pull back to a second line of defence in order that the troops would have even a few hours to reinforce and defend their positions before the Soviet vanguard hit them. Hitler refused, ordering the Wehrmacht and Waffen-SS to hold the first line, dooming them to a constant assault that overran position after position. It’s preciusely this “what’s the harm?” attitude that the LTTE is trying to exploit.

You can call it ‘cease’, ‘pause’, ‘hold’ or any other word you like, but in the end it just means blood — ours.

“On the other hand it would give a much needed respite to the battle-fatigued soldiers.”

Really? I thought you said that a pause of a week or two would make no difference? If it’ll give the Army respite, it certainly will give the LTTE just as much, and right now it’s the latter who is overstretched and fatigued. The Army has a huge numerical advantage, and its teeth battalions are well rested and supplied. They don’t need a respite; the LTTE does.

“The pre-condition of downing arms before the cease-fire is logically sound and popularly appealing but practically Utopian.”

I agree. This is merely a GoSL ploy to ensure that the LTTE cannot call for negotiations it has no intention of seeing through. It’s similar to the Israeli statement that Hamas must lay down arms before talks commence.

“Even if the experts are proved wrong in our particular case, how many more thousands of our siblings are we going to sacrifice on the Altar of Ares before we see an end to this conflict?”

That is a separate argument, and the debate on war vs negotiations has nothing to do with whether the GoSL should agree to this latest ploy of the LTTE. Either way, since as you yourself say, a couple of weeks will make no difference to the larger picture of the war, right?

“Exterminating the LTTE would not spell the end of the problem at all.”

No, but neither will granting the “legitimate aspirations of the Tamils”. Not as long as the LTTE exists. Both must be done simultaneously. The destruction of the LTTE (extermination is unnecessary) will end the war, and Tamil self-rule will ensure that Tamil aspirations are fulfilled. As has been done in the East.

“The one month hold-fire should be subject to strict conditions applicable to both sides under the watchful eyes of the world community.”

You mean like the infamous CFA?

“The name of Martin McGuinness of Sinn Fein vintage, who was recently here, comes to my mind in this connection.”

McGuinness is nothing but a Provo thug.

“Let us give Peace a sporting chance!”

Bit too late now that we’re playing injury time.

viceunversa said,

August 1, 2008 @ 3:21 pm

If, and IF one side is losing, an offer of a ceasefire would be a chance to re-group, develop new strategies and even conduct new recruitment drive. I think even in sports, you drive home the advantage, not defend it. Other than of course the English soccer team.

Sam Thambipillai said,

August 1, 2008 @ 4:26 pm

David,

I think you are suffering from a blackout when you wrote;

“Perhaps it would create this impression among those who have no idea where Sri Lanka is or what sort of a war is being fought. No one else has really criticized the GoSL’s stand.”

The whole world knows the arrogance of GOSL to carry out the war iinspite of advise to the contrary. Was Sri Lanka expelled from the Human Rights council because there were countries that had “no idea where Sri Lanka was ? All know that there is no military solution to gurella war.

You appear to have swallowed the GOSL propaganda that LTTE would “need oxygen”.You fail to understand that GOSL sent desperate text messages forced into all subscribers calling for “patriots to come and fight”. Did you ever realise as to why it was done ?

You also appear to be far from truth, reality and pragmatism when you wrote the following;

‘No, but neither will granting the “legitimate aspirations of the Tamils”. Not as long as the LTTE exists. Both must be done simultaneously. The destruction of the LTTE (extermination is unnecessary) will end the war, and Tamil self-rule will ensure that Tamil aspirations are fulfilled. As has been done in the East.”

My questions are;

a) Has tamil self rule aspirations been fulfilled in the East ? Surely, you are a soldier and does not know the science of politics. The aspirations are far from being fulfilled.

b) LTTE will always exist and it will always have mass support. Could it be ever eliminated?

aadhavan said,

August 1, 2008 @ 4:52 pm

“The destruction of the LTTE (extermination is unnecessary) will end the war, and Tamil self-rule will ensure that Tamil aspirations are fulfilled. As has been done in the East.”

That’s some puerile political commentary there. No Tamil voice that has ever been taken seriously has ever advocated the thirteenth as a framework within which Tamil aspirations can be fulfilled. To suggest that Tamil aspirations have been fulfilled in the East, with the most important parts of the thirteenth not even being implemented at all is a little JHUesque, since it assumes that a little tinkering with the status quo should do for the Tamils, and that the fundamental structure of the state need not be altered.

Before you go off a tangent David, the Karuna group doesn’t consider the thirteenth to be sufficient either.

Darren Sinclaire said,

August 1, 2008 @ 9:45 pm

Anyone who reads this post knows that No 2 will be the most likely outcome going by history. So why have the options at all and kid our selves? While the enemy is weary, we have to take the full advantage and press on. We’re at a too important of a stage to even consider a cease fire with no genuine intention. It would be foolish if not down right callous of our military brass if they agreed to a ceasefire.

David Blacker said,

August 4, 2008 @ 3:06 pm

“The whole world knows the arrogance of GOSL to carry out the war iinspite of advise to the contrary.”

If it is arrogance to choose one’s own path and not that of the majority, then we are arrogant, as is the Tamil nationalist movement that chose a path removed from the country’s majority. However, the majority of the world has been open in its condemnation of the LTTE and it’s terrorism. The continuous arrests of LTTE operatives, shutting down of TV stations such as Tharisaram, the banning of the WTM, etc are all proof of this. Yes, there is the lip-service paid to political correctness in the form of suggestions that diplomacy is better than war. But it is just lip service, and the very countries that pay this service, train our soldiers and arm our Air Force. On the other hand, there was almost no protest at the GoSL refusal to implement a SAARC truce.

“You fail to understand that GOSL sent desperate text messages forced into all subscribers calling for “patriots to come and fight””

I’m quite aware of this method, and it was more of a test run really to gauge response than a serious attempt to recruit. Walk-in enlistment at the moment is satisfactory. I notice you’ve tried to dramatise all this with some addition of adjectives. Lol.

“a) Has tamil self rule aspirations been fulfilled in the East ?”

Perhaps I was hasty in using the past tense, but I think it’s safe to say that the aspirations are being fulfilled. Of course, it’ll be a long process, made longer by the LTTE’s attempt to sabotage the process, the general corruption of the GoSL, the ineptness of the TMVP, etc, but it’s still Tamil self-rule of a sorts and is a beginning (that goes for you too, Aadhavan, before you get your hobby horse into full gallop).

“b) LTTE will always exist and it will always have mass support. Could it be ever eliminated?”

Optimism is always charming, Sam, but your panties are showing I’m afraid. If you’d said that Tamil aspirations will always exist and will always have mass support, I’d agree with you. Only the LTTE feels that the LTTE must always exist. They are barely existing now, and they have very little support.

I will not respond to your personal attacks on me, Sam, as I think you have enough ways of fueling your stupidity without my help.

“the Karuna group doesn’t consider the thirteenth to be sufficient either.”

I didn’t say I did either, Aadhavan. I believe I’ve already answered the rest of your comments in my response to Sam.

aadhavan said,

August 5, 2008 @ 7:07 am

At rsik of accused of being on horse, asked what I’ve been smoking, eating etc(i think evrry one of your response to one of my comments follows the above pattern machang, it’s a bit tedious)

aadhavan said,

August 5, 2008 @ 7:20 am

…may i venture to say that merely having a Tamil CM is not the kind of self rule that really even begins to meet Tamil aspirations, because it is status quo. It’s been around since 1987. It’s the same failed decentralisation/devolution under a unitary constitution, where real executive power lies with the Governor(who is directly appointed by the President) and where any legislative work by the PC can be undone by Parliament with little fuss. Saying that the East is beginning to have self rule is saying that the Uva, Sabara and NorthCentral Provinces have been having self rule for the last 20 odd years. Sounds a little funny because that’s not what most people would call self rule.

David Blacker said,

August 5, 2008 @ 2:21 pm

“i think evrry one of your response to one of my comments follows the above pattern machang, it’s a bit tedious”

Well I’m afraid if you ask the same questions, you get the same answers. I believe one of the definitions of insanity is to do the same thing every time, but somehow expect the result to be different. Perhaps you should ask fresh questions.

“…may i venture to say that merely having a Tamil CM is not the kind of self rule” etc

Well then I suggest that the sort of self rule that is wanted and needed should be explored, now that there is some basis for progress. Clearly, fighting for it isn’t working. And to say that all the East has is a Tamil CM is ridiculous. For one the East isn’t totally Tamil, but nevertheless the TMVP (a Tamil majority party) is in power, a party which is working towards having a Tamil police force and a Tamil Army, along with other land powers. Surely you’re not expecting to have a neatly packaged present of Tamil rule plonked in your laps? It’ll take a bit more work, and a bit less rhetoric.

aadhavan said,

August 5, 2008 @ 3:46 pm

strange it is Blacker, that even though I’m supposed to be asking the same questions, the answers are always different and so they should be, covering the 13th, human rights, military necessity etc.The attempts at humour remain the same though i.e- what are you eating, doing, smoking, drinking, are you riding a horse etc etc If you want to keep it up, I have no objection besides that it’s tedious. but what do I know, you’re the comic writer!

The party in power in the East is the UPFA, of which the TMVP is a smaller constituent party member. They are trying to get some Tamils into the police force, some Tamils into the army and are asking the President that the laws that have been around since 1987 be implemented vis a vis land. Real exec power is with the Governor, legislative power is held by the UPFA and is subject to the whim of the central government . If that’s self rule, and if Uva has been enjoying self rule for the last two decades, that’s really good news. In any case, you’ve retreated from self rule has been achieved to self rule is in it’s nascent stages, to Tamil’s need to do more to achieve self rule. With a shifting target like that, perhaps it’s best to allow you to engage yourself in an internal debate. Sorry for interrupting that process. Ta.

David Blacker said,

August 5, 2008 @ 5:07 pm

“strange it is Blacker, that even though I’m supposed to be asking the same questions, the answers are always different and so they should be”

Hmm, then I guess you were either smoking, drinking, or riding when you typed this: “i think evrry one of your response to one of my comments follows the above pattern machang, it’s a bit tedious”

So are my answers the same or different? Lol. I think you need to make your mind up as to what exactly your argument is if you’re gonna follow me around the blogs repeating your mantra.

“They are trying to get some Tamils into the police force, some Tamils into the army”

Aadhavan, you and Sam can put diminutive and other adjectives into your theories to slant things, but that won’t make it true. The TMVP is trying to get the bulk of its fighting strength into the police and CDF, and later into the regular Army. In other words, legitimacy.

“The party in power in the East is the UPFA, of which the TMVP is a smaller constituent party member”

Of course. The UPFA itself is made up of constituent parties. Nowhere did I suggest that this was federal rule, did I? There are many forms of self-rule, just as there are many forms of federalism.

“you’ve retreated from self rule has been achieved to self rule is in it’s nascent stages, to Tamil’s need to do more to achieve self rule.”

I haven’t. You seem forced to resort to the deception of pretending I said something whenever you respond to my comments, Aadhavan. I understand it’s easier to argue with something you yourself put into your opponent’s mouth, sort of like scripting a fight, but it just makes you look juvenile, machang. Argue with what I said rather than what you wish I said. I withdrew my first comment, ‘cos I admit it sounded like self-rule was a done deal, and reworded my comment. From then on I answered specifics. YOU say that the East isn’t on a satisfactory road to self rule, not I. If so, I think it’s upto you to then engage with that rather than expect solutions to be dropped in your lap, and I said so, If you want to call this a retreat, go for it.

“perhaps it’s best to allow you to engage yourself in an internal debate”

Well, we’ve had this same debate over many blogs, Aadhavan, but you seem to insist on popping up every month or so to refight your battles. It’ll take more than a few weeks to revive that dead horse

aadhavan said,

August 5, 2008 @ 10:35 pm

Acknowledging your inclination for claiming blog victories is as pronounced as your penchant for claiming battle hero status Blacker, forgive me for taking the former with a sack full of salt. I’d rather discuss the details of the 13th with someone a little more familiar with it’s details. Ciao. My apologies for forcing you to engage politics, and apologies to the editors of this blog for the same.

Somapala Gunadheera said,

August 6, 2008 @ 12:14 am

I thoroughly enjoy the lively debate that is continuing as a sequel to my little piece on “A ‘Hold-Fire’ for one month”. The debate is raging far beyond the limited scope of my humble suggestion but it is serving the very useful purpose of giving open expression to the frustrations embedded in the hearts of protagonists of the ethnic debate on both sides. Another heartening sign is that the debate is maintained on a refined level without personal venom.

What is disappointing however, is that the exchange of views is confined to just a few persons in a country which has a population of nearly 20 million, quite a few of them being intellectual giants. Although there are orators breathing fire against the LTTE on soap boxes, there is only one gallant voice ‘defending the fort’ against a few concerned Tamils. It is the same courageous few that seem to enter the fray in connection with other similar entries in Groundviews. Where are our stalwarts on both sides, including the Diaspora?

Now that the government appears to be fighting to a finish and the APRC is dragging its feet ad infinitum, at least the intelligentsia has a duty to engage themselves in the search for a consensus to the vexed problem of our ethnic conflict, if the Tamils are not to be left at a dead end at the end of the fight. One way to begin the search is for an informed representative of the moderate Tamils (even anonymously) to set down a minimum package with which the majority on that side can be expected to agree. It is pathetic that after decades of argument, we are still not possessed of such a basic document.

Intellectuals on both sides can use the minimum package as a starting point to debate out a mutually acceptable solution. Such a resolution would be naturally acceptable to the international community which at the going rate of state procrastination, is very likely to become the final arbitrators of the dispute, as has already happened in other theaters of ethnic conflict. No self-respecting nation could be happy about such an intervention. The best way to prevent such humiliation is for opinion leaders on both sides to engage themselves in a brave and open debate on the minimum mutually acceptable package.

I have no doubt that Groundviews would be pleased to play host to such a venture.

Somapala Gunadheera

David Blacker said,

August 6, 2008 @ 10:34 am

“Acknowledging your inclination for claiming blog victories is as pronounced as your penchant for claiming battle hero status Blacker”

Acknowledging your legal training that urges you to only ask questions you know the answer to, I must once more point out that you only seem comfortable addressing statements you CLAIM I’ve pronounced, rather than the ones I actually have. I urge you to point out anywhere in the blogosphere I’ve done either of your above allegations. Victory, and heroism, like beauty, is only in the eye of the beholder, I’m afraid.

” I’d rather discuss the details of the 13th with someone a little more familiar with it’s details.”

I suggest you discuss it with someone who gives a toss.

“Ciao. My apologies for forcing you to engage politics, and apologies to the editors of this blog for the same”

Ta ta. See you in a few weeks.

David Blacker said,

August 6, 2008 @ 10:35 am

BTW, Aadhavan, you seem constantly looking for windmills to tilt at instead of engaging the dragons available. This isn’t a court of law, so what’s up with that?

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