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Analysis of how Jaffna voted and why the EPDP feels defeated in Sri Lanka’s first post-war elections

It appears to me that the TNA and TULF might have got more of the Tamil votes than EPDP in Jaffna.

Out of 13 seats for the UPFA, 4 have gone to Muslims candidates. 9 are from EPDP.

A Northern Displaced Muslim friend of mine says that 3000 votes were cast by the displaced Muslims living in Puttalam (If anyone has a better/accurate number i am willing to correct myself on this). Moulavi Sufiyan of Independent Group 1 himself polled around 1100 votes. The rest went to UPFA.

Total number of votes polled by UPFA is 10,000. If you subtract the Muslim votes from the 10,000 only about 8000 votes have gone to the EPDP from Jaffna Tamil residents. (i substract only 2000 since about 1000 have gone to the Moulavi) TNA has then got almost the equivalent number of votes that EPDP polled- 8000 – from Jaffna Tamil residents. Add to this TULF’s votes that’s 9000 votes. More than actually what EPDP received. This also reduces the number of Jaffna MC Tamil residents who have actually voted from 20,000 to around 17,000.

Remedius, TNA’s Mayoral Candidate has topped the preferential votes (4,233 votes). That is 1000 votes more than the second on the preferential list (an EPDP candidate). UPFA’s Mayoral Candidate Theyvendran didnt get enough preferential votes to be elected.

It is also no secret that most of the 3000 resettled from the Jaffna IDP camps on the 5th of August were from Kurunagar. A key constituency for the EPDP. This link is from EPDP’s Official site: http://epdpnews.com/news.php?id=4130&ln=tamil

No wonder EPDP Leader Social Services and Social Welfare Minister Douglas Devananda has told Daily Mirror that he is disappointed with the results. He has told the local newspapers that it was a loss in Jaffna and a heavy one in Vavuniya.

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  • Heeding the voices of the North The results of the elections to the Jaffna Municipality and Vavuniya Urban Council are an instructive measure of the distance to be traveled for peace, reconciliation and national unity. In both cases voter turn out was relatively low, though in the case of the Jaffna Municipality not as low as some commentators have made out.... Dr. P. Saravanamuttu, August 13, 2009
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rod fox said,

August 11, 2009 @ 12:51 am

the tamil people supported the TNA in 2004 on the platform that the LTTE are the sole reps and they still support the TNA and Tamil self determination. the tamil quislings that the international community and the sinhala south want to be the tamil leaders have little to no support with the vast majority of the Tamils in Eelam and the diaspora. just imagine if this was a completely free and fair election.

Inpam m said,

August 11, 2009 @ 1:07 am

Whatever it is the election in Jaffna is hundred percent free and fair.The truth is TNA lost and EPDP won the election.Federal party,TULF and tiger proxy TNA had been doninating Jaffna for decades and now it has changed.Pro tiger TNA knew even before the election that they were going to lose.Atleast in the future EPDP wont take Tamil youtghs towards violence like the FP,TULF and tiger agents TNA did in the past.

King Duttagamini said,

August 11, 2009 @ 3:11 am

Good analysis,
not only because it flatly disprove Dayan J’s claim that the results are a confirmation that the Tamils welcome Devananda as their alternative national leader, also because result of elections ( however bad the process is) are an indicator to the complex mind set of a marginalized minority polity

One wonder whether Dr Jayathilake has joined Devananda as propaganda secretary

Dayan Jayatilleka said,

August 11, 2009 @ 5:24 am

For far less speculative and personalised and far more objective assessments of the Northern vote, read Dr Jehan Perera (The Isand) and Harim Pieris ( Daily Mirror). As for the arithmetical calculation of the Jaffna vote, Jehan makes an interesting point, as follows:

“…By way of contrast, the elections on August 8, 2009 were conducted in a peaceful manner that evoked memories of a bygone era before the armed Tamil militancy took the upper hand in the North.

The Northern elections defied expectations by being virtually incident free. Initially there was an expectation that these elections could follow the pattern of the elections in the East in 2007. At those elections the LTTE’s breakaway Karuna group renamed TMVP was liberal in its use of violence, intimidating candidates, voters and election officials alike. The government’s security forces rarely intervened to enforce the law. But at the recently concluded Northern elections the situation was different. Perhaps this reflects the aberrant nature of the LTTE period, which held an entire society in the thrall of violence.

Some of the contesting Tamil political parties retained paramilitary forces to protect themselves from the LTTE, but also had a reputation for using their weapons to intimidate and coerce the civilian population. Credit must be given to the leaders of these parties for ensuring that their cadre who retained their arms restrained themselves to practice non-violent politics. Perhaps they had the political sense to realize that they could not aspire to be mainstream leaders of the Tamil people if they continued to engage in intimidation and coercion. As a result the verdict at the polls is likely to reflect the sentiments of the Northern electorate at this point of time, despite shortcomings.

One such shortcoming at the Jaffna elections was the utilization of an electoral register that had not been properly updated. As a result although the electoral register led to the issuance of 100,747 polling cards, only 54,000 of them could be delivered. It is likely that the balance is not living any longer in Jaffna. The bloated figure in the electoral register also gives rise to the impression of a lower participation rate in the election than is actually warranted. The 18 percent participation figure was based on a non-existent electorate of a 100,000 when in reality the amount of voters was half of that. This would approximately double the effective voter participation rate.”

- Implications of the Northern election verdict
by Jehan Perera

ayshya said,

August 11, 2009 @ 7:24 am

I’m surprised at Devananda’s surprise. Did he really think that cosying up the government whilst employing bullying tactics against the people of Jaffna and other political parties would really endear EPDP to voters?

indi said,

August 11, 2009 @ 8:20 am

Isn’t the point elections rather than one particular party winning?

If people want to stick it to the government that’s fine by me, as long as they participate in governance.

aadhavan said,

August 11, 2009 @ 9:01 am

If Douglas couldn’t win comfortably in an election where one of his rivals, Sangaree, couldn’t even hire a vehicle with which to campaign, where the TNA’s foot soldiers have been ‘exterminated’ during the course of the hundreds of extra judicial killings in Jaffna during the last 3 or 4 years, where news media and international election observers weren’t even allowed in, where he had 3000 supporters released from illegal and shameful internment camps just to prop his vote up, where 80% of those registered didn’t vote, at a time when none of the other parties thought it an appropriate time to have the elections, and where his was the only party that has access to violent means in a city under military occupation, then Douglas may want to consider why he isn’t a popular guy in those parts, as I’m sure he will. Let me help him out. No one likes a sell out.

TamilDiaspora said,

August 11, 2009 @ 10:31 am

I agree with Aachcharya that it was loss for EPDP & government and victory for Tamils’ quest for self-determination. Jehan Perera & other Peacenik who were apologetic to LTTE earlier, now they are doing the same with government and its allies. Instead of coming up with the excuses like bloated numbers, people were not there & other trivial reasons for the Tamils’ boycott of the elections, these peaceniks could have warned it forehand without writing columns and conducting polls supporting the elections. It was government’s responsibility to make sure the electoral process held without any hiccups, after all it was governments decision to hold the election in haste ignoring the pleas made by the Tamil parties. With all fan fare doing Northern Spring and releasing three thousand IDPs to vote for EPDP/govt, they couldn’t even get clear majority. While TNA cannot celebrate much about the government loss either as the citizens of Jaffna would have also been bitter towards TNA as it was pussyfooting the LTTE and ultimately leaving the Tamils in pathetic state in IDP camps. Otherwise they would have chose to vote for TNA. Overall huge victory for Tamil Nationalism and unquestionable thirst for Tamil’s self-determination. At the end loser is government and the victor is the people of Jaffna in the electoral process.

President Bean said,

August 11, 2009 @ 10:41 am

Results: Jaffna Municipal Council

UNITED PEOPLE’S FREEDOM ALLIANCE (UPFA): 10,602 (13 seats)
ILANKAI TAMIL ARASU KADCHI (ITAK): 8,008 (8 seats)
INDEPENDENT GROUP 1: 1,175 (1 seat)
TAMIL UNITED LIBERATION FRONT: 1,007 (1 seat)
UNITED NATIONAL PARTY: 83 (no seat)
INDEPENDENT GROUP 2: 47 (no seat)

Valid Votes: 20,922
Rejected Votes: 1,358
Total Polled: 22,280
Registered Electors: 100,417

Vavuniyaa Urban Council:

ILLANKAI TAMIL ARASU KADCHI: 4,279 (34.81%, 5 seats)
DEMOCRATIC PEOPLE’S LIBERATION FRONT:4,136 (33.65%, 3 seats)
UNITED PEOPLE’S FREEDOM ALLIANCE: 3,045 (24.77%, 2 seats)
SRI LANKA MUSLIM CONGRESS: 587 (4.78%, 1 seat)
UNITED NATIONAL PARTY: 228 (1.85%)
SRI LANKA PROGRESSIVE FRONT: 10 (0.08%)
INDEPENDENT GROUP 1: 6 (0.08%)
INDEPENDENT GROUP 3: 1 (0.05%)
INDEPENDENT GROUP 2: -

Valid Votes 12,292
Rejected Votes 558
Total Polled 12,850
Registered Electors 24,626

With all the intimidation that went on prior to the elections in Jaffna, the UPFA was only able to get 2600 more votes than the TNA? Food for thought eh? In Vauniya the UPFA was wiped out by the TNA and the DPLF…the sinhalese in UWA might still be in a war frenzy…but the tamils up north cannot be cowed by government intimidation! If Rajapaksa wants a lasting peace, he should devolve power NOW…and not later…that is the least that the tamils will settle for!

President Bean said,

August 11, 2009 @ 10:46 am

indi…are you the guy who writes article 14 in the ‘Sunday Leader?’ If you are, ha…if you continue writing the way you do…in a couple of years time you might be made media minister when Namal Rajapaksa becomes President! Better still…why don’t you switch to the ‘Daily Noise’ or the ‘Observer?’ Your talents are lost at the ‘Leader!’

groundviews said,

August 11, 2009 @ 10:49 am

President Bean, I would appreciate it if you dealt with the substantive issues flagged by Aacharya’s post or Indi’s response, rather than trivial personal attacks against commentators which is against the spirit and guidelines of this site – http://www.groundviews.org/submission-guidelines. Thank you.

Migara said,

August 11, 2009 @ 11:43 am

@ President Bean

No one has answered how the devolution of power helps majority of Tamils in SL, who are living mainly in central and western provinces, which are heavily populated by Sinhalese.

The better option may be to devolve power geographically, not in a racial basis. For that current absurd district borders has to be erased and new borders has to be defined. Defining it by using watersheds of rivers or rivers themselves in SL will be beneficial because most of the Lankans are still farmers and it will help to solve problems.

The Underdog said,

August 11, 2009 @ 12:35 pm

Douglas losing is a good result for the country from an international point of view. The IC is waiting to pounce and point fingers at a sham electoral process. Kinda hard to do that when the opposition won. I have to admit, I was pretty surprised by the result. Though I did not expect Douglas to actually BE popular, I expected vote rigging to ‘fix’ that. Either the riggers were idiots, or this election actually was fair, or…they rigged it for Douglas to lose (to pander to the IC–unlikely, but hey, ya never know).

President Bean said,

August 11, 2009 @ 2:20 pm

Migara…the 13 Amendment was brought in especially for the benefit of the tamils in the north and the tamil speaking people (muslims) of the east! For Gods sake just implement the entire 13th Amendment without beating around the bush! You majority guys will never get it no? We minorities do not want to live under the jackboot of the majority! We will rather die on our feet than live on our knees!

ps: I am not a Buddhist…nor am I a Hindu…

jayathilaka said,

August 11, 2009 @ 3:16 pm

the result of election in north and east clearly shows that the government has a long way to go to win the heats of tamils.the low turnout of votes has shown that the tamils are not satisfied with the way how they treat tamils.government does not have a solid planto adress the problems of tamils but only think of wining the lections by cheating tamils by giving them election promisses.which is very harmful in the long run.they have not yet been able to bring solutions to the burning problems in south.for exampel providing jobs, housing etc,how can one expect them to solve the problems of north.

jayathilaka said,

August 11, 2009 @ 3:29 pm

One like Jehan perera and Dayan jayathilaka who appeared on behalf of separatists under the guise of NGOs are now changing their tune and talks about implementing 13th amedment.They cant they way where the winds blows.Presidenta has no mandate to do it even if he has implementing the 13th amendment will agrevate the problem rather than solving it in the long run .for the simple reason that geographically it creates lot of problems (ex Mavil Aru Problem) and also since there is anoter minority “Muslims” living in north and east one day they will demand more powers vested in their regions and theere willl be eternal wars .and that is exactly what the Internation coummunity needs and these guys are supporting them.

Moggy said,

August 11, 2009 @ 3:50 pm

Dayan-

Jehan’s article was shoddily researched at best, and was intentionally misleading at worst. The claim that “the elections on August 8, 2009 were conducted in a peaceful manner that evoked memories of a bygone era before the armed Tamil militancy took the upper hand in the North” is just blatantly false. The Center for Monitoring Election Violence (CMEV) documented dozens of incidents of election violence- you can find their reports here: http://www.cpalanka.org/page.php?id=0&catid=40key=d5051bfaac9825589ac14cb898d52227

Furthermore, even if Jehan’s claim (which is actually PAFFREL’s claim; see http://www.dailymirror.lk/DM_BLOG/Sections/frmNewsDetailView.aspx?ARTID=57492) that the voter turnout in Jaffna was actually double the reported 18%, that’s still low. And if the claim is true, perhaps he could have at least pointed out that the reason that the said voters were hypothetically “no longer living in Jaffna”, was because they were dead, according to PAFFREL.

TamilDiaspora said,

August 11, 2009 @ 7:29 pm

The government will never win the hearts and minds of the Tamil-speaking people of the Island; simply it doesn’t have the vision, courage and the right peoples its hierarchy to do so. The Tamils gave clear mandate in 1976 and subsequent elections that they want their inalienable right of self-determination and they have no interest in getting bananas or getting involved in the monkey business. The constitution of Sri Lanka, and the mindset of majority Sinhala Buddhist will never allow Tamil speaking people getting any substantive devolution in the Island. Only way any solution brought or any solution will found for Sri Lanka’s ethnic problem by force by India and/or international community as the way it found in former Yugoslavia or at worst South Ossetia type solution imposed by India, the both have high likelihood the way things shaping up in Sri Lanka.

Aachcharya said,

August 11, 2009 @ 8:31 pm

There is more in Jehan’s “far less speculative and personalised and far more objective assessments of the Northern vote” (Dayan J’s words) article where he comments on TNA’s performance. It needs to be read in full. The Ambassador has selectively reproduced what he thought were interesting to him. It can be read here: http://peace-srilanka.org/index.php?option=com_content&view=article&id=160:implications-of-the-northern-election-verdict&catid=1:latest&Itemid=121I am also very interested in the accolades that the Ambassador is showering on Dr Perera.

This piece of mine was not an analysis. It was an email that i wrote to a few colleagues and friends which the editor of GV was interested in publishing. Its only a commentary on the numbers.

Ambassador Jayatilleke had said in an article that was published in the island yesterday that ‘the Tamil people of Jaffna have opted for Douglas Devananda as their next leader’. http://www.island.lk/2009/08/10/features1.html My commentary on the numbers disagree with this conclusion.

oriental said,

August 11, 2009 @ 10:59 pm

Just to recount what a lot of the later analysis has been on about, it seems the actual voter turn out was closer to 40% in Jaffna than 20%. The Sunday (or was it Monday?) papers were full of it and the logic seemed to hold true. If the report is true, registering dead or displaced/interned people is inevitably going to lead to a low voter turn out.

On the ability to freely campaign, while it obviously is relevant and important to creating a truly democratic representative system of governance, I’m interested to know to what extent party loyalty plays a role in politics in Jaffna.

For example, Colombo would never be won (sans ballet stuffing) by the SLFP/UPFA no matter how ever much they campaign. Considering the long and complex pedigree of many of the parties that contested in the MC election I wonder if voters would actually have been swayed to the TNA or the EPDP based on policies. Is it the policy or the personality that matters in the end? If it’s the latter, the ability to hire a vehicle wouldn’t have much played on the result of the vote.

Also, I note with regret Achcharya’s obsession with ethnic thinking. Possibly, he’d just being practical in assuming all muslim votes would go to the muslim candidate. Reminds me of the famous election banner from a general election in the 50s – “ooth kupadiya, mooth kupadiya. Ape kupadiyata chande deepung!’ (‘that guy’s a crook and this guy’s a crook. just vote for our own crook.’) It is a sad result of the nature of politics in Sri Lanka. Just an observation.

NoEalamInSL said,

August 12, 2009 @ 10:31 pm

I heard someone was telling, Solution to Sri Lanka is a 3D strategy (De-militarization, Development and Democratiztion), is that true?

Tamil Diaspora:

Democracy is in the hearts of the people. Tamils in the government, Tamils in the provincial councils, Tamils in the Municipal councils, Tamils freely move than Sinhalese. No Eelam, but well Ellaam!

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